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Message #14 of 252  *NEW*
To:  All
From:  
The Olde English Ds  
Subject:  Upcoming Schedule and Starting Pitching
Date:  2/23/06, 12:24pm
graphic
Hello BGeeks,

Well spring training is picking up and the excitement for the upcoming season is mounting. Glad to have the Ghost of Chet Lemon on board. Hopefully we can get more Tiger’s fans and others involved. Today will outline the scheduled positional analysis for the Bengals during spring training. This week’s focus is on the starting pitching and the Tiger’s starters are compared to the other teams in the tough AL Central.

The Olde English Ds Blog Schedule for spring training

February 20-26: Starting Pitchers
February 27- March 5: Relief Pitchers
March 6-12: Infielders
March 13-19: Outfielders
March 20-26: Bench
March 27-April 2: Coaching Staff
April 3: Opening Day at Kansas City

The drama over the #1 starter role ended early this year under Leyland’s direction. Last year fans waited patiently for the announcement of Jeremy Bonderman as the young pitcher ever to start an opening day for the Tigers. What a difference a year makes. In 2006 the Detroit squad features the oldest opening day starter in team history with 41 year old Kenny Rogers. This gives the Tigers something they have been lacking in a quality veteran pitcher to lead the staff. Bonderman is slated to start the second game of the year against the Royals and follow that up with the home opener against the World Champion White Sox on the 10th of April. Not too shabby for the 23 year old that already has experience at the top of the rotation and will return to the position in a matter of time. These two give the Tigers a strong top of the rotation. Rogers should have about the same success as last year and win 14-15 games and maintain a solid ERA in the 3-4 range. He will eat up close to 200 innings again and help the team significantly. Bonderman is only going to continue improving. As he continues to learn his ERA will only drop. Jeremy’s win total should lead the team. He will surpass last year’s total and win between 18-20 games with an ERA below 4. Trading Jeff Weaver for this guy was a steal.

The 3 and 4 spot in the rotation will make or break the Tigers in 2006. Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth are fairly steady average starting pitchers. Maroth is a crafty lefty depending on pitch placement and deception to get hitters out while Robertson is a harder throwing lefty with a fast ball in the lower 90s. Both pitchers are 28 and pitch a lot of innings. Maroth was 14-14 with a 4.74 ERA in 209 innings showing good control with 51 BB. Robertson went 7-16 with some tough luck losses posting a lower ERA of 4.48 in 196.2 innings but did not have as good of control walking 65. The question is how much improvement fans can expect from these guys. Maroth has spent four years in the Tiger’s rotation with ERAs floating between 4.3 and 5.7. He is a decent pitcher, but is a better fit as a lower end of the rotation guy with an ERA closer to 5 that can pitch a lot of innings for you. Robertson appears to have more upside, but the last two years he has started strong and tailed off toward the end of the year. A good sign for Nate is his ERA has decreased each year he has pitched in the majors, the past two as a regular on the Tiger’s staff. If he can improve his stamina through the year and develop consistency he could lower his ERA to around 4 maybe into the high 3s and pitch over 200 innings. With three lefties in the starting rotation it would not be surprising if one of these guys were moved to make room for one of the younger arms coming along, such as a Zumaya or a Colon. This is nothing new for Maroth, who is a great guy, but continually the subject of trade rumors.

The fifth spot is Verlander’s to lose. If Dombrowski was not willing to trade this guy for Josh Beckett as was report than he will be given every chance to pitch in the majors. He has nothing to prove or gain from more time at the minor league level. If Verlander is as good as advertised he will be the number 5 starter in name only and quickly move up the #3 spot. Others to watch at this spot include Roman Colon, who was acquired from Atlanta in the Farnsworth trade and Joel Zumaya. Reportedly both have impressed in camp. Don’t be surprised if both end up making the team as relievers. Speculation continues that Zumaya could be the closer of the future as the article CL’s Ghost reference pointed out. However, the potential big three of Bonderman, Verlander and Zumaya each throwing in the high 90s is intriguing. A name that has disappeared is Wilfredo Ledezma, the rule 5 pick from a few years ago with great stuff, but who struggled with control when given a shot at the #5 last season. Watch to see if he turns out to be the desired second lefty out of the bullpen.

The AL Central has some of the best starting pitching in all of baseball. Here is how I think they stack up.

1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals

The Indians and Tiger are very closely matched in their starting pitching. Obviously I am biased so feel free to tell me so. However, in my opinion the Tiger’s rotation has more potential upside with the quality of the young arms. The White Sox are easily the class of the division with the Twins not far behind. I expect Radke and Silva to rebound with better years. Let me know your thoughts on the break down of the Tiger’s starting rotation and how they compare to the rest of the AL Central.

OE Out

--------------------------------------------------------
Go Tigers!!!
--------------------------------------------------------

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Message #17 of 252  *NEW*
To:  The Olde English Ds's Blog Thread
From:  
rmayer78  
Subject:  Upcoming Schedule and Starting Pitching
Date:  2/24/06, 9:47am
Impressive analysis OED! I must admit that I will need to spend a little more time analyzing the numbers before I can have an intelligent conversation on the AL Central pitching and even the Tigers pitching. However, I'd be concerned if the Tigers had Colon and Zumaya as relievers in the majors this season, especially early. I'd rather see one or both of them start at Toledo so they can get some innings in and avoid the frustration of only pitching an inning or two in the majors every week. One bad outing can linger for weeks if that's the case. Especially with four starters that will eat up a lot of innings and then relievers like Jones and Walker who will get priority in relief and then German and Rodney and Spurling who will probably be given a chance to prove themselves before Zumaya and Colon. Depending on how spring training goes Percival may be given a relief spot as well. I think Ledezma needs to prove himself again in Toledo before he's brought up as well. It's exciting for the Tigers to have these issues though!

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Message #20 of 252  *NEW*
To:  The Olde English Ds
From:  
Guest7195 (IP: 69.141.76.197)  
Subject:  Re: Upcoming Schedule and Starting Pitching
Date:  2/23/06, 6:01pm
The Tigers should be able to compete well this year. They're not great anywhere, but they're not terrible anywhere either. Granderson is a huge upgrade over Nook Logan, I think. Craig Shelton's already a pretty good player. If Ordonez can give them a good year, their offense is going to be decent, no real holes. The Starting pitching is the key. Bonderman and Robertson have to get their ERA's below 4, and then the Tigers can contend, otherwise .500 is the best they can do this year.

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Message #21 of 252  *NEW*
To:  The Olde English Ds's Blog Thread
From:  
Ghost of Chet Lemon  
Subject:  Re: Upcoming Schedule and Starting Pitching
Date:  2/24/06, 4:07pm
Ahh, the Tigers pitching staff. Oh Dave Rozema, where have you gone!

1. The Gambler - Not sure if that should be Rogers nickname or Dombrowski's. But I digress. Check out this stat line

W L BB K ERA
21 7 66 129 3.27

Sounds like a pretty good season, huh? That belonged to a Mr. Jamie Moyer, an aging but dependable crafty lefty, in 2003 when he was (drum roll please) 41. Will he come close to these stats? Anything close would be worth the relatively minimal investment. My guess is closer to OE's, but I wouldn't bat an eye at an 18 win season with an ERA around 3.50.

2. Bondageman - I thought last year was the breakout season, but coach Cluck said we'd have to wait until 2006 to see the full package. The only thing that concerns me is the high support (5.67 runs per game) the Tigers gave him last year that made his season look slightly better than it was. I think that Bonderman will benefit most from having Rogers around, and not having to be the "ace," which he'll become anyway. Now if Rogers could just teach him how to deal with the media.

3. Kingman - My prediction is that Maroth will be traded by the deadline. He's a great pitcher and all, but the three lefties, especially with two in the "crafty" mold, is a glaring problem. None-the-less, untill he's gone, you can pencil Mr. Average in for 8 wins (and 8 losses), and an ERA around 4.5.

4. Robertson - 4.90, 4.49. If run support helped Bonderman, it killed Robertson. Despite averaging nearly half a run less a game, Robertson went from 12-10 to 7-16. It wouldn't surprise me if he wins 16 games this year with an ERA around 4. He will benefit from Rogers not from his leadership, but from his completely different stlye of left handed pitching. They will compliment each other beautifully.

5. Yellow Number 5 - Verlander, Zumaya, Colon, Ledezma, Grilli (yes, he was good in AAA last year). I will be the first to say this shoud not be Verlander's spot. Yes, he will be good. No, he is not the only missing piece for the Tigers to make the playoffs. Does anyone remeber how frustrating it was when the Twins wouldn't put Santana in the rotation? I would welcome that frustration right now, just to be sure that the Ace that will be Verlander is not rushed.
Never the less, if Verlander is given a chance to win this spot, it will be his. I project him to win 10 games, and to slump badly come mid season.

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Message #22 of 252  *NEW*
To:  The Olde English Ds's Blog Thread
From:  
Ghost of Chet Lemon  
Subject:  Re: Upcoming Schedule and Starting Pitching
Date:  2/25/06, 2:16pm
As for the rest of the pitching in the AL Central, I agree with OE on the quality. In fact, I would make the case that the division has the best pitching, top to bottom, of any division in the league. This is how I rank them out

5.Royals - The only team in the division whose pitching rates as below average. Out of everyone in the rotation, Denny Bautista is the only one I would grade as above a number 3 starter, and he is still largly untested. However, nobody on this staff is a dog, and the offseason pick-ups Elarton and Redman give them a good Veteran presance that at least won't lose ballgames for them. Greinke is the wildcard on this staff, who took a big step backwards last year trying to live up to his "Can't Miss Prospect" billing. This staff could survive with good run support, which they will not get.

4. Tigers - This will be the first year in the recent future when the Tigers will go into the season with an above average staff. As many have pointed out, Robertson and Bonderman are the keys to the staff. I look for them to develop as promised, and lead the Tigers to the promised land (that being above .500 of course.)

3. Cleveland - I would have rated them #1 in the division if they had kept, or properly replaced, Millwood. But they didn't, and now there faced with journeyman Paul Byrd, who is solid but unspectacular, and Jason Johnson, whose already been batted around the AL Central for the past two years. Sabathia is still an ace, and at 26 could still be coming into his own. Cliff Lee managed to post a very quite 18 wins last year with a 3.79 ERA, and is arguably the best #2 starter in the league. If Westbrook can eliminate his horrid outings (maybe if he just doesn't pitch against the Tigers, who torched him in two early season contests last year), they could be solid enough to lead the Indians to the Wild Card.

2. Chicago - Ahh, maybe I'm just fooling myself, but I think the Chicago staff reached it's pinnicle last year. Buehrle is the Anonymous Ace of MLB, and his track record shows he will contiue to be if his shoulder can handle his tremendous workload (over 230 innings the past three years). Contreras is 34 (is that in dog years !?) and I believe he hit his ceiling last year, though you could probably pencil him in for 13-14 wins still. Garcia is consitent, but unremakable, and will have a tough time keeping his ERA under 4 in an improved AL Central. Garland returned to earth in the second half last season (5-6 in his last 15 starts) and I see him continuing his "Average" trend. Both Vazquez and McCarthey are interesting, one as a top prospect, and the other as a lost star. If either of them have a career season, this staff could be elite.

1. Minnesota - Santana is the top pitcher in baseball period. If he can avoid the early season swoons of the past two years, he could push 25 wins. Radke, Silva, and Lohse are all solid number two pitchers who had down 2005 seasons. The real key here is Scott Baker and Fracisco Liriano, who are closer to the top then any other prospects in the Central, and possibly the majors. If even one of them lives up to their billing (I believe both of them will) Minnesota will have one of the top three staffs in the Majors, if not, they probably grade out to number three in the central.

No matter how you look at it, the Central is stocked with pitching. Cleveland, Minnesota, and the ChiSox are very close to each other, and look forward to seeing them all pitch in CoPa this year.

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Message #23 of 252  *NEW*
To:  Ghost of Chet Lemon
From:  
drrubb  
Subject:  Re: Upcoming Schedule and Starting Pitching
Date:  2/25/06, 2:39pm
Rogers could be a key veteran edition to the Tigers' staff as well. If he pitches anywhere close like he did last season, he will be a solid number 3 behind Bonderman & Robertson on that staff. All Rogers needs to do is avoid the cameras.

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Message #26 of 252  *NEW*
To:  The Olde English Ds's Blog Thread
From:  
Aurelio Rodriguez-Lopez  
Subject:  Re: Upcoming Schedule and Starting Pitching
Date:  3/3/06, 6:59pm
After checking out the box scores from the first two games, I started to think about two things:
1. Errors
2. Relief Pitching

Errors: Without having the stats, I would guess that the Tigers were among worst teams for making errors in 2005. This has been a trend for a few years now. And these are recorded errors.

What about errors that don't make it into the box score, like base running mistakes, and mis-judged fly balls? If you followed the Tigers last year, you know what I'm taking about. Solid baseball has been lacking for years. Can Leyland get them to play with better fundamentals?

2. Relief Pitching: How many games did the Tigers blow when leading after 7 innings last year? WAY TOO MANY. It is not the starters that I worry about. They kept the games close. The relievers jsut plain gave away the season.

Side note: Will Bonderman ever be able to close a season like he begins? He fades by the end of July like clockwork. Hopefully its a maturity thing. Arguably, he could have played in the all-star game last year based on the first half of the season. He had only two wins after the all-star break. Two.

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